News

THYAO, TAVHL, MGROS, BIMAS & AYGAZ -Tera - 09/11/2015
09/11/2015 09:10:05 THYAO, TAVHL, MGROS, BIMAS & AYGAZ -Tera
 
slightly better operational results...
* Based on operational performances, THYAO, TAVHL, MGROS, BIMAS and AYGAZ reported strong quarters with slightly better than expected margins. KRDMD, ASELS and GUBRF's operational margins, on the other hand, were slightly below expectations.
* In the short term, the markets are fluctuation with global data (i.e., expectations regarding FED) hence the sporadic actions after US data announcements. In the local arena, after the announcement of final election results by the election council, AKP will establish the cabinet for the next 4 year-period. From markets point of view, the focus will be on the new economic administration and new economic plans/reforms. Up until then, we think the markets will continue to stay in a range bound trading mode.
 
WHAT TO WATCH
- OECD Economic Outlook Report
- Last day for 2015/09 consolidated results to be released (PGSUS, TRGYO, SISE, TRKCM, ANACM, SODA, DOAS, ALARK, TMSN are among companies to announce results)
- Sep'15 Industrial Production (survey: -0.9% m/m)
 
TECHNICAL VIEW - S/T Trend: Sideways Down
1.Resistance: 82900. Resistance: 83800t: 81400ast Friday's strong US Payroll figures has put a significant pressure on EM currencies, in which USDTRY has closed above the critical threshold @2.9165 on weekly basis, while today we may witness a sort of retracement in which 2.8750 seems to be the major support level once again, hence in parallel to the positive sentiment on global basis, the index may continue its consolidation above 81000 (i.e. MAV(200) on daily basis), in which the upper-bound of down-channel formation @ 84000-84500 continues to be the most important threshold for the index's further momentum. Furthermore, the index on USD basis could not prevail to settle above the Fibonacci retracement level (underpinned by MAV(200) on daily basis) @ 30000, while the indicators denote a further downward momentum to materialise in the upcoming periods on s/t basis, thus despite a possible downward correction on the currency front, technically negative outlook on the USD-based index, we deem a possible upward momentum (consolidation) above 81000 would be insufficient so as to settle above 84000-84500 range in the short run.
 
3Q15 EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

NON-FINANCIALS 2015/3Q Chg Chg 2015/3Q Chg Chg
Ticker Name Net Income* y/y q/q P/E EBITDA* y/y q/q EV/EBITDA  
BIMAS Bim Birlesik Magazalar TRL 168.9 46% 13% 34.3x TRL 230.5 31% 6% 22.6x Sell
THYAO Turk Hava Yollari TRL 1,341.3 -2% 103% 4.8x TRL 2,610.6 66% 187% 7.7x Neutral
TAVHL Tav Havalimanlari TRL 245.8 -4% 46% 13.5x TRL 542.1 27% 23% 8.7x Neutral
ASELS Aselsan -TRL 108.2 n.m. n.m. 152.6x TRL 105.6 -14% -20% 15.4x Not Rated
MGROS Migros -TRL 341.7 n.m. n.m. -7.9x TRL 178.2 16% 47% 9.4x Buy
AYGAZ Aygaz TRL 112.7 66% 5% 12.0x TRL 92.1 29% 21% 14.5x Buy
AKFEN Akfen Holding -TRL 202.7 n.m. n.m. -7.3x TRL 15.7 1225% -62% 57.1x Not Rated
GUBRF Gubre Fabrikalari TRL 12.3 -60% 366% 14.5x TRL 78.5 -26% 553% 7.4x Neutral
KOZAL Koza Altin Isletmeleri TRL 108.8 9% 148% 5.5x TRL 91.5 -28% -25% 2.4x Not Rated
KRDMD Kardemir (D) -TRL 117.3 n.m. n.m. -14.0x TRL 78.7 -39% -3% 10.5x Buy
CMENT Cimentas TRL 6.9 -59% -61% 11.5x TRL 33.6 -13% -21% 10.2x Not Rated
BRSAN Borusan Boru TRL 26.8 145% 27% 23.1x TRL 65.7 80% 49% 12.0x Not Rated
DEVA Deva Holding TRL 15.1 599% 28% 18.4x TRL 30.2 89% 9% 11.4x Not Rated
SAFGY Saf G.M.Y.O. TRL 234.0 570% 154% 1.8x TRL 35.5 -53% 22% 8.7x Not Rated
ZOREN Zorlu Enerji -TRL 174.0 n.m. n.m. -1.8x TRL 80.8 59% 10% 19.1x Not Rated
BRYAT Borusan Yat. Paz. -TRL 6.0 n.m. n.m. 22.4x Not Rated
AKENR Ak Enerji -TRL 251.3 n.m. n.m. -1.4x TRL 47.3 58% -58% 15.2x Not Rated
AKMGY Akmerkez G.M.Y.O. TRL 19.5 15% 4% 9.5x TRL 20.1 16% 9% 9.6x Not Rated
TUKAS Tukas -TRL 1.0 n.m. n.m. 18.7x TRL 6.4 n.m. -21% 44.8x Not Rated
ASUZU Anadolu Isuzu -TRL 19.9 n.m. n.m. 100.6x TRL 10.2 52% -46% 10.2x Not Rated
AKSGY Akis G.M.Y.O. TRL 49.5 n.m. n.m. 4.6x TRL 10.4 11% -8% 28.8x Not Rated
PAGYO Panora G.M.Y.O. TRL 10.1 -4% 0% 4.8x TRL 9.5 -5% -5% 4.7x Not Rated
ULUSE Ulusoy Elektrik TRL 4.6 -1% 123% 21.2x TRL 5.1 -15% 59% 15.3x Not Rated
GLYHO Global Yatirim Holding -TRL 9.4 n.m. n.m. -2.6x TRL 67.3 167% 40% 15.3x Not Rated
SARKY Sarkuysan TRL 12.4 71% 31% 8.3x TRL 35.1 235% 54% 9.1x Not Rated
HURGZ Hurriyet Gazetecilik -TRL 4.1 n.m. n.m. -2.1x TRL 10.2 179% -63% 10.4x Not Rated
ALCTL Alcatel Teletas -TRL 1.6 n.m. n.m. -251.1x -TRL 2.2 n.m. n.m. 35.6x Not Rated
ERBOS Erbosan TRL 4.9 -20% -10% 9.7x TRL 4.7 -32% -22% 7.5x Not Rated
PRKAB Turk Prysmian Kablo TRL 10.9 n.m. 1110% 7.2x TRL 11.4 290% 97% 2.1x Not Rated
AKGUV Akdeniz Guvenlik Hizmetleri TRL 1.2 -54% 0% 11.8x TRL 1.0 -60% -2% 12.7x Not Rated
GEREL Gersan Elektrik TRL 7.0 197% -69% 2.8x TRL 8.1 237% 214% 7.6x Not Rated
KRSTL Kristal Kola TRL 0.9 762% 120% 68.2x TRL 1.5 n.m. n.m. 81.2x Not Rated
CMBTN Cimbeton -TRL 1.1 n.m. n.m. 32.4x TRL 0.0 n.m. -96% 34.7x Not Rated
EDIP Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim -TRL 25.9 n.m. n.m. -10.0x TRL 7.2 19% 45% 14.8x Not Rated
OSTIM Ostim Endustriyel Yatirimlar -TRL 2.7 n.m. n.m. -12.1x TRL 1.1 n.m. 199% 14.1x Not Rated
UTPYA Utopya Turizm -TRL 6.9 n.m. n.m. -1.1x TRL 9.2 -14% n.m. 18.7x Not Rated
BURCE Burcelik -TRL 0.3 n.m. n.m. -50.6x TRL 1.0 28% 91% 17.7x Not Rated
BRKSN Berkosan Yalitim Ve Tecrit TRL 0.0 -87% n.m. 34.2x TRL 0.4 -57% -29% 27.0x Not Rated
GEDZA Gediz Ambalaj TRL 0.2 -41% -57% 18.1x TRL 0.9 2% -1% 8.2x Not Rated
* Million 
 
- THYAO: The airliner reported USD471mn net income in 3q15, down 26% y/y, in line with consensus estimates yet slightly better than ours. Topline came in at USD3.26bn in 3q15, down 2% y/y, in line with consensus estimates (slightly higher than ours). EBITDA beat estimates with 28.1% margin vs. 26.4% est. The lower bottomline is mainly due to financial expenses including FX losses/gains.
- TAVHL: TAVHL reported ¬79.9mn net income in 3q15, down 10% y/y, staying shy of estimates. Topline came in at ¬310mn, slightly below our estimates and consensus estimates. Reported EBITDA margin came in higher than estimates (55.3% Tera est.& 51.7% cons. est. vs. 56.2% actual), which is positive. Higher financial expenses and higher tax expenses are the main reasons for lower than expected bottomline.
- MGROS: The retailer wrote off TL111.5mn in 3q15 as "relief from royalties" - i.e., Tansas brand value impairment. Therefore net income came in worse than estimates. Excluding this one-off, 3q15 net loss came in slightly lower than estimates. Topline came in line however EBITDA margin hence EBITDA beat estimates (MGROS posted 6.6% EBITDA margin vs. 6.0% cons.ets. and 6.3% Tera est.).
- BIMAS: Another strong quarter from the hard discounter! BIMAS reported TL169mn net income ,n 3q15, up 46% y/y, beating estimates slightly thanks to FX gains of TL21mn in the quarter. Topline increased by 19% y/y and came in line yet EBITDA margin came in slightly above estimates.
- KCHOL: The Conglomerate reported TL892.5mn net income in 3q15, up 32% y/y, beating estimates. Positive.
- AYGAZ: Bottom-line came in higher than estimates (Tera: TL100mnL93mn) thanks to higher than expected operational performance. EBITDA margin came in at 5.0%, up 1.1pps y/y thanks to increasing demand from consumers due to lower LPG prices vs our 4.7% call and 4.8% market estimate. Top-line came in line with our estimate while 7% higher than market estimate. Notice that strong contribution of TUPRS to bottom-line continued in 3q15.
- GUBRF: Net income came below consensus estimate, yet in line with our estimate. Operational margins slightly below consensus estimate, while top-line was higher than expectations. Consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 10.5%, down 8.4 pps y/y, above our 6.6% call, due to higher contribution from Razi. More than 90% of the consolidated EBITDA came from Razi in 3q15. EBITDA margin of Razi was 24% vs. our 20% call. 
- KRDMA /KRDMB /KRDMD: Bottom-line was much worse than estimates due to high FX loss loss in 3q15 vs. TL31mn loss in 3q14 (Tera Estimate: TL12mn net loss, Consensus: TL74mn net loss). On the other hand, operational margins were slightly lower than market estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 14.9% vs. 14.3% market call. Having said that, top-line stayed 18% below market estimate.
- ASELS: Bottom-line was much worse than market estimate (Consensus: TL40mn net loss) due to both lower revenue and below-EBIT items. Top-line contracted by 17% and stayed 32% below consensus estimate, while EBITDA margin was just slightly below estimates. Net other expense + net financial expense were -TL231mn in 3q15 vs -TL86mn in 3q14, and this was the main reason of high net loss.
 
FINANCIALS 2015/3Q Chg Chg 2015/3Q Chg Chg
Ticker Name Net Income* y/y q/q P/E ROE y/y q/q P/BV
FINBN Finansbank TRL 169.1 -31% -24% 19.2x 11.1% 2.2 -1.1 2.07x Not Rated
VAKFN Vakif Fin. Kir. TRL 4.5 n.m. -36% 7.6x 9.3% 10.7 5.8 0.59x Not Rated
* Million
 
COMPANIES
- Tupras, refinery, $6.8bn MCap / NEUTRALompany held a conference call on Friday following the 3q15 financial results. Accordingly, main reasons for strong operational performance were lower oil prices, a weaker currency and lower fixed costs due to higher volumes. 3q15 CUR was at 110% thanks to RUP project and also all time high. 7.3mn ton of crude were processed in the quarter, up 36% y/y. And EBITDA contribution of RUP goes above initial guidance of $550mn p.a. so far. Just like after 2q15 results, the company revised up its net refining margin estimate for 2015 after 3q15 results. Now, the company expect 6.0-6.7 $/bbl net refining margin for whole year, instead of 5.0-5.6 $/bbl. Since our EBITDA and Net Income estimates stayed only slightly below actual results, our full year estimates seems in line, which is TL3.3bn EBITDA margin and TL2.3bn net income for 2015.
- Tekfen Holding, TKFEN, construction, fertilizer and real estate holding, $571mn MCap/ BUYpany held a conference call on Friday following the 3q15 financial results. Accordingly, strong margins in construction segment comes from remaining works for Tupras and is not sustainable. We may expect 4q15 margin similar to 1h15, which was 5% (also in line with the full year guidance, which was revised following 1h15 results). Separately, oil projects in Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan, stadiums in Qatar are potential new projects. 
 
 
DAILY COMMENT: THYAO, TAVHL, MGROS, BIMAS & AYGAZ - slightly better operational results...
* Based on operational performances, THYAO, TAVHL, MGROS, BIMAS and AYGAZ reported strong quarters with slightly better than expected margins. KRDMD, ASELS and GUBRF's operational margins, on the other hand, were slightly below expectations.
* In the short term, the markets are fluctuation with global data (i.e., expectations regarding FED) hence the sporadic actions after US data announcements. In the local arena, after the announcement of final election results by the election council, AKP will establish the cabinet for the next 4 year-period. From markets point of view, the focus will be on the new economic administration and new economic plans/reforms. Up until then, we think the markets will continue to stay in a range bound trading mode.
 
WHAT TO WATCH
- OECD Economic Outlook Report
- Last day for 2015/09 consolidated results to be released (PGSUS, TRGYO, SISE, TRKCM, ANACM, SODA, DOAS, ALARK, TMSN are among companies to announce results)
- Sep'15 Industrial Production (survey: -0.9% m/m)
 
TECHNICAL VIEW - S/T Trend: Sideways L/T Trend: Down
1.Resistance: 82900 1. Support: 81400t: 80800
Last Friday's strong US Payroll figures has put a significant pressure on EM currencies, in which USDTRY has closed above the critical threshold @2.9165 on weekly basis, while today we may witness a sort of retracement in which 2.8750 seems to be the major support level once again, hence in parallel to the positive sentiment on global basis, the index may continue its consolidation above 81000 (i.e. MAV(200) on daily basis), in which the upper-bound of down-channel formation @ 84000-84500 continues to be the most important threshold for the index's further momentum. Furthermore, the index on USD basis could not prevail to settle above the Fibonacci retracement level (underpinned by MAV(200) on daily basis) @ 30000, while the indicators denote a further downward momentum to materialise in the upcoming periods on s/t basis, thus despite a possible downward correction on the currency front, technically negative outlook on the USD-based index, we deem a possible upward momentum (consolidation) above 81000 would be insufficient so as to settle above 84000-84500 range in the short run.
 
3Q15 EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

NON-FINANCIALS 2015/3Q Chg Chg 2015/3Q Chg Chg
Ticker Name Net Income* y/y q/q P/E EBITDA* y/y q/q EV/EBITDA  
BIMAS Bim Birlesik Magazalar TRL 168.9 46% 13% 34.3x TRL 230.5 31% 6% 22.6x Sell
THYAO Turk Hava Yollari TRL 1,341.3 -2% 103% 4.8x TRL 2,610.6 66% 187% 7.7x Neutral
TAVHL Tav Havalimanlari TRL 245.8 -4% 46% 13.5x TRL 542.1 27% 23% 8.7x Neutral
ASELS Aselsan -TRL 108.2 n.m. n.m. 152.6x TRL 105.6 -14% -20% 15.4x Not Rated
MGROS Migros -TRL 341.7 n.m. n.m. -7.9x TRL 178.2 16% 47% 9.4x Buy
AYGAZ Aygaz TRL 112.7 66% 5% 12.0x TRL 92.1 29% 21% 14.5x Buy
AKFEN Akfen Holding -TRL 202.7 n.m. n.m. -7.3x TRL 15.7 1225% -62% 57.1x Not Rated
GUBRF Gubre Fabrikalari TRL 12.3 -60% 366% 14.5x TRL 78.5 -26% 553% 7.4x Neutral
KOZAL Koza Altin Isletmeleri TRL 108.8 9% 148% 5.5x TRL 91.5 -28% -25% 2.4x Not Rated
KRDMD Kardemir (D) -TRL 117.3 n.m. n.m. -14.0x TRL 78.7 -39% -3% 10.5x Buy
CMENT Cimentas TRL 6.9 -59% -61% 11.5x TRL 33.6 -13% -21% 10.2x Not Rated
BRSAN Borusan Boru TRL 26.8 145% 27% 23.1x TRL 65.7 80% 49% 12.0x Not Rated
DEVA Deva Holding TRL 15.1 599% 28% 18.4x TRL 30.2 89% 9% 11.4x Not Rated
SAFGY Saf G.M.Y.O. TRL 234.0 570% 154% 1.8x TRL 35.5 -53% 22% 8.7x Not Rated
ZOREN Zorlu Enerji -TRL 174.0 n.m. n.m. -1.8x TRL 80.8 59% 10% 19.1x Not Rated
BRYAT Borusan Yat. Paz. -TRL 6.0 n.m. n.m. 22.4x Not Rated
AKENR Ak Enerji -TRL 251.3 n.m. n.m. -1.4x TRL 47.3 58% -58% 15.2x Not Rated
AKMGY Akmerkez G.M.Y.O. TRL 19.5 15% 4% 9.5x TRL 20.1 16% 9% 9.6x Not Rated
TUKAS Tukas -TRL 1.0 n.m. n.m. 18.7x TRL 6.4 n.m. -21% 44.8x Not Rated
ASUZU Anadolu Isuzu -TRL 19.9 n.m. n.m. 100.6x TRL 10.2 52% -46% 10.2x Not Rated
AKSGY Akis G.M.Y.O. TRL 49.5 n.m. n.m. 4.6x TRL 10.4 11% -8% 28.8x Not Rated
PAGYO Panora G.M.Y.O. TRL 10.1 -4% 0% 4.8x TRL 9.5 -5% -5% 4.7x Not Rated
ULUSE Ulusoy Elektrik TRL 4.6 -1% 123% 21.2x TRL 5.1 -15% 59% 15.3x Not Rated
GLYHO Global Yatirim Holding -TRL 9.4 n.m. n.m. -2.6x TRL 67.3 167% 40% 15.3x Not Rated
SARKY Sarkuysan TRL 12.4 71% 31% 8.3x TRL 35.1 235% 54% 9.1x Not Rated
HURGZ Hurriyet Gazetecilik -TRL 4.1 n.m. n.m. -2.1x TRL 10.2 179% -63% 10.4x Not Rated
ALCTL Alcatel Teletas -TRL 1.6 n.m. n.m. -251.1x -TRL 2.2 n.m. n.m. 35.6x Not Rated
ERBOS Erbosan TRL 4.9 -20% -10% 9.7x TRL 4.7 -32% -22% 7.5x Not Rated
PRKAB Turk Prysmian Kablo TRL 10.9 n.m. 1110% 7.2x TRL 11.4 290% 97% 2.1x Not Rated
AKGUV Akdeniz Guvenlik Hizmetleri TRL 1.2 -54% 0% 11.8x TRL 1.0 -60% -2% 12.7x Not Rated
GEREL Gersan Elektrik TRL 7.0 197% -69% 2.8x TRL 8.1 237% 214% 7.6x Not Rated
KRSTL Kristal Kola TRL 0.9 762% 120% 68.2x TRL 1.5 n.m. n.m. 81.2x Not Rated
CMBTN Cimbeton -TRL 1.1 n.m. n.m. 32.4x TRL 0.0 n.m. -96% 34.7x Not Rated
EDIP Edip Gayrimenkul Yatirim -TRL 25.9 n.m. n.m. -10.0x TRL 7.2 19% 45% 14.8x Not Rated
OSTIM Ostim Endustriyel Yatirimlar -TRL 2.7 n.m. n.m. -12.1x TRL 1.1 n.m. 199% 14.1x Not Rated
UTPYA Utopya Turizm -TRL 6.9 n.m. n.m. -1.1x TRL 9.2 -14% n.m. 18.7x Not Rated
BURCE Burcelik -TRL 0.3 n.m. n.m. -50.6x TRL 1.0 28% 91% 17.7x Not Rated
BRKSN Berkosan Yalitim Ve Tecrit TRL 0.0 -87% n.m. 34.2x TRL 0.4 -57% -29% 27.0x Not Rated
GEDZA Gediz Ambalaj TRL 0.2 -41% -57% 18.1x TRL 0.9 2% -1% 8.2x Not Rated
* Million 
 
- THYAO: The airliner reported USD471mn net income in 3q15, down 26% y/y, in line with consensus estimates yet slightly better than ours. Topline came in at USD3.26bn in 3q15, down 2% y/y, in line with consensus estimates (slightly higher than ours). EBITDA beat estimates with 28.1% margin vs. 26.4% est. The lower bottomline is mainly due to financial expenses including FX losses/gains.
- TAVHL: TAVHL reported ¬79.9mn net income in 3q15, down 10% y/y, staying shy of estimates. Topline came in at ¬310mn, slightly below our estimates and consensus estimates. Reported EBITDA margin came in higher than estimates (55.3% Tera est.& 51.7% cons. est. vs. 56.2% actual), which is positive. Higher financial expenses and higher tax expenses are the main reasons for lower than expected bottomline.
- MGROS: The retailer wrote off TL111.5mn in 3q15 as "relief from royalties" - i.e., Tansas brand value impairment. Therefore net income came in worse than estimates. Excluding this one-off, 3q15 net loss came in slightly lower than estimates. Topline came in line however EBITDA margin hence EBITDA beat estimates (MGROS posted 6.6% EBITDA margin vs. 6.0% cons.ets. and 6.3% Tera est.).
- BIMAS: Another strong quarter from the hard discounter! BIMAS reported TL169mn net income ,n 3q15, up 46% y/y, beating estimates slightly thanks to FX gains of TL21mn in the quarter. Topline increased by 19% y/y and came in line yet EBITDA margin came in slightly above estimates.
- KCHOL: The Conglomerate reported TL892.5mn net income in 3q15, up 32% y/y, beating estimates. Positive.
- AYGAZ: Bottom-line came in higher than estimates (Tera: TL100mnonsensus: TL93mn) thanks to higher than expected operational performance. EBITDA margin came in at 5.0%, up 1.1pps y/y thanks to increasing demand from consumers due to lower LPG prices vs our 4.7% call and 4.8% market estimate. Top-line came in line with our estimate while 7% higher than market estimate. Notice that strong contribution of TUPRS to bottom-line continued in 3q15.
- GUBRF: Net income came below consensus estimate, yet in line with our estimate. Operational margins slightly below consensus estimate, while top-line was higher than expectations. Consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 10.5%, down 8.4 pps y/y, above our 6.6% call, due to higher contribution from Razi. More than 90% of the consolidated EBITDA came from Razi in 3q15. EBITDA margin of Razi was 24% vs. our 20% call. 
- KRDMA /KRDMB /KRDMD: Bottom-line was much worse than estimates due to high FX losst financial loss in 3q15 vs. TL31mn loss in 3q14 (Tera Estimate: TL12mn net loss, Consensus: TL74mn net loss). On the other hand, operational margins were slightly lower than market estimate. EBITDA margin came in at 14.9% vs. 14.3% market call. Having said that, top-line stayed 18% below market estimate.
- ASELS: Bottom-line was much worse than market estimate (Consensus: TL40mn net loss) due to both lower revenue and below-EBIT items. Top-line contracted by 17% and stayed 32% below consensus estimate, while EBITDA margin was just slightly below estimates. Net other expense + net financial expense were -TL231mn in 3q15 vs -TL86mn in 3q14, and this was the main reason of high net loss.
 
FINANCIALS 2015/3Q Chg Chg 2015/3Q Chg Chg
Ticker Name Net Income* y/y q/q P/E ROE y/y q/q P/BV
FINBN Finansbank TRL 169.1 -31% -24% 19.2x 11.1% 2.2 -1.1 2.07x Not Rated
VAKFN Vakif Fin. Kir. TRL 4.5 n.m. -36% 7.6x 9.3% 10.7 5.8 0.59x Not Rated
* Million
 
COMPANIES
- TuprasMCap / NEUTRALare - The company held a conference call on Friday following the 3q15 financial results. Accordingly, main reasons for strong operational performance were lower oil prices, a weaker currency and lower fixed costs due to higher volumes. 3q15 CUR was at 110% thanks to RUP project and also all time high. 7.3mn ton of crude were processed in the quarter, up 36% y/y. And EBITDA contribution of RUP goes above initial guidance of $550mn p.a. so far. Just like after 2q15 results, the company revised up its net refining margin estimate for 2015 after 3q15 results. Now, the company expect 6.0-6.7 $/bbl net refining margin for whole year, instead of 5.0-5.6 $/bbl. Since our EBITDA and Net Income estimates stayed only slightly below actual results, our full year estimates seems in line, which is TL3.3bn EBITDA margin and TL2.3bn net income for 2015.
- Tekfen Holding, TKFEN, construction, fertilizer and real estate holding, $571mn MCap/ BUYe - The company held a conference call on Friday following the 3q15 financial results. Accordingly, strong margins in construction segment comes from remaining works for Tupras and is not sustainable. We may expect 4q15 margin similar to 1h15, which was 5% (also in line with the full year guidance, which was revised following 1h15 results). Separately, oil projects in Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan, stadiums in Qatar are potential new projects.